Bill Watkins forecasts a “frying pan” shaped recovery curve from the 2007-2009 recession. He is Executive Director of the California Lutheran University Center for Economic Research and Forecasting.

Economic growth in Ventura County will be 0.1% compared to the national average of 1.2%. This meager growth figure is based on two major assumptions: 1) the Bush Tax Cuts are extended and there is no sovereign or state debt default. If either one of these two assumptions proves false, the growth rate will be even worse.

Unemployment remains high in Ventura County, 11.2%, compared to the national average, 9.7%, although the unemployment rate is lower than California in general, 12.4%. Unemployment rose to 322,000 unemployed workers from 289,000. To put that into perspective, the increase in unemployment is roughly the size of the city of Camarillo.

Bill presents a fair and balanced forecast of the economy in the 4th quarter of 2010, although it is not what some would call optimistic.

Listen to the entire interivew below: